By Jerome A. Cohen
I think PRC mediation is urgently “necessary” now from China’s perspective as well as those of the combatants. China’s international standing has been badly damaged by its appearance as a silent partner in Russia’s war. If China could now emerge as a successful mediator – a very tall order in the circumstances – it could establish a new and more positive image in the world. Blessed are the peacemakers! Both the Chinese language and Western languages endorse the wisdom of seeking to turn a vice into a virtue. Even a good faith mediation effort that failed would improve the PRC’s status.
But what is “mediation”? The term embraces a multitude of possible roles. Certainly there is no need for a third party merely to pass messages back and forth between the combatants since they have proved capable of conducting direct discussions. At the other end of the mediation spectrum, this is not a situation where the third party can exercise irresistible pressures upon the combatants to accept its proposed terms of settlement. Yet Russia’s need for PRC support to resist the impact of international sanctions gives Beijing considerable sway over the outcome if it chooses to act strongly despite the sensitivity of their “rock solid” relations.
The challenge, of course, is to find a plausible basis for settlement that will give sufficient “face” to Russia’s withdrawal without detracting from Ukraine’s earned respect for its independence and the Western world’s massive rejection of wars of aggression.
The problem now is not to avoid revival of the Cold War, since the Cold War is plainly already revived. The problem is how to end a Hot War that can become a broad catastrophe if mishandled.